Weekly Intelligence Brief #2

The most important developments in the Tech Cold War this week — across AI, chips, critical minerals, defence tech, quantum, space, and more.

AI: Global South Enters the AI Governance Arena

The India AI Impact Summit, held in New Delhi from 16 to 20 February, marked the first time a global AI summit was hosted outside the Western bloc. The rebranding from "AI Safety" to "AI Impact" reflects the position of developing nations that they will no longer accept governance frameworks designed exclusively in Washington, Brussels, or Beijing. Over one hundred countries sent delegations. Sundar Pichai, Sam Altman, and Dario Amodei were all present. French President Macron used the visit and the opening of the India-France Year of Innovation 2026 to finalise a 114-aircraft Rafale deal with India, a reminder that AI summits now serve as venues for broader strategic dealmaking.

The competition for influence over how artificial intelligence is governed, deployed, and monetised runs through New Delhi as much as it runs through Silicon Valley or any other town in the globe.

Why it matters: The Global South's entry into AI governance reshapes the playing field. Nations controlling large populations and fast-growing digital economies will be increasingly assertive in setting the terms of AI adoption.

AI: DeepSeek V4 and the Efficiency Doctrine

While there are on going discussion on the DeepSeek V4 release date, it seems that the Company has begun rolling out V4 capabilities, with rumors of silent upgrades for selected users to a one-million-token context window and an updated knowledge cutoff. The architectural core is the Engram Conditional Memory system, which separates static knowledge retrieval from dynamic reasoning using O(1) hash lookups — a structural departure from how Western frontier models handle information. Internal benchmarks suggest V4 outperforms leading Western models on coding tasks at a fraction of the inference cost, continuing the pattern established when DeepSeek R1 triggered a one-trillion-dollar tech stock selloff in January 2025. The model is expected to be released as open-weight under an Apache 2.0 licence, designed to run on consumer-grade hardware. This approach is aimed, not expressly but de-facto, to challenge the Western AI strategy assumption that restricting China's compute access would slow its progress.

Why it matters: If V4 delivers as market is expecting, it would confirm that algorithmic efficiency can offset hardware restrictions and consequently undermining the strategic logic of compute-based containment.

Chips: Washington Writing the Rules of Managed Access

The tariff carve-out story deepens the logic explored in our H200 analysis, with Washington reportedly preparing exemptions for hyperscalers on TSMC-fabricated chips, contingent on TSMC's $250 billion U.S. investment commitment. Conditional access is the key element of the new ruling: advanced chips flow in exchange for capital commitments and domestic production pledges. The semiconductor market is approaching $1 trillion in global sales for 2026, but the distribution of that silicon is increasingly shaped by political negotiation rather than market forces. The ruling issued by Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) in January 2026, allows case-by-case H200 exports to China, remains in effect alongside a 25 percent tariff under Section 232. The framework is evolving into a managed trade regime where Washington determines who gets what chips, at what price, and under what conditions.

Why it matters: Semiconductor policy has shifted from denial or access to managed distribution — a regime where chip flows are tied to investment, alliance membership, and production commitments.

Critical Materials: The Stockpile Doctrine Takes Shape

Project Vault, a $12 billion initiative combining a $10 billion EXIM loan with private capital, and critical minerals trading bloc with pricing floors, signal a structural shift in Washington's approach. The February Critical Minerals Ministerial brought 54 nations together, producing 11 bilateral frameworks and the launch of FORGE, a new multilateral forum for resource geostrategic engagement. However the core asymmetry remains: China controls approximately 70% of global rare earth mining and over 90% of processing. The Council on Foreign Relations argues that innovation in materials engineering - new chemistries, processes, and devices that reduce dependence on the most politically exposed inputs - may matter more than securing additional mine supply.

Why it matters: The West is shifting from reactive stockpiling to proactive industrial strategy. The question is whether allied coordination and R&D investment can move fast enough to reduce China's structural leverage before the next supply disruption.

Defence Tech: FCAS Collapse Exposes Europe's Combat Cloud Dilemma

Europe's €100 billion Future Combat Air System has effectively collapsed. Chancellor Merz acknowledged that France and Germany have incompatible requirements — Paris needs a carrier-capable, nuclear-armed aircraft; Berlin does not. Belgium, a participant to the consortium, via its Defence Minister, declared the programme dead. Germany is now exploring the possibility to enter into the rival UK-Italy-Japan GCAP programme.

FCAS was designed around three pillars: the Next Generation Fighter, Remote Carriers, and a Combat Cloud. The Combat Cloud, which represents a strategically significant element, is a networked data and command architecture linking manned aircraft, autonomous drones, and sensor platforms in real time. Senior officials have indicated that while the continent can afford to operate multiple fighter platforms, it cannot afford multiple incompatible data ecosystems. In an era where decision speed and sensor fusion determine battlefield outcomes, the software layer connecting platforms may matter more than the platforms themselves.

The episode exposes a core tension in the Tech Cold War: defence industrial integration requires interoperable digital infrastructure, and building that infrastructure demands the kind of deep technological collaboration that national sovereignty instincts resist.

Why it matters: The FCAS collapse is a test case for whether European allies can build shared combat data infrastructure — the networked backbone that determines who wins in AI-enabled warfare.

Space: The Servicing Race in Geosynchronous Orbit

The U.S. Space Force has four on-orbit servicing demonstrations planned for 2026, encompassing satellite refuelling, repair, and repositioning in geosynchronous orbit. China demonstrated GEO refuelling capabilities in mid-2025, establishing a first-mover position. The ability to extend satellite lifespans and reposition assets in contested orbits is becoming as important as launch capability itself. US call for "space dominance", supported with an estimated $40 billion budget reflect the reality that space is now an active operational domain, a competition for the ability to sustain and adapt space-based infrastructure during conflict.

Why it matters: Control over on-orbit servicing determines who can sustain space assets during a crisis, and the U.S.-China race for GEO servicing capability is shaping a new dimension of strategic competition.

Europe & Allies: Ariane 64 and the Sovereignty Question

Arianespace's successful Ariane 64 maiden flight restores European independent heavy-lift launch capability, whose strategic significance extends well beyond the delivery of commercial satellite. Without the sovereign capability of launching satellite, European defence and intelligence assets remain dependent on American or allied providers for access to orbit, a vulnerability that is incoherent with the EU's €800 billion defence spending ambitions.

Separately, EU participation in the U.S.-led Critical Minerals Ministerial and planned joint action plans with Washington and Tokyo signal growing alignment on resource security, an area where European vulnerability is severe. The convergence of launch sovereignty and mineral security represents two threads of the same strategic ambition: reduce dependency on potential adversaries or unreliable partners.

Why it matters: Europe's credibility as an independent strategic actor rests on sovereign access to orbit and raw materials, with Ariane 64 addressing the first requirement.

Corporate: Caught in the Crossfire

Nvidia is navigating simultaneous high Chinese demand and Washington's evolving regulatory framework. TSMC reported January revenue up 37 percent year-on-year, with 2nm capacity already sold out, underscoring that the foundry sits at the centre of every geopolitical chip negotiation. Anthropic $200 million contract with the Pentagon is under review after reports that the military used Claude during the operation to capture Venezuela's Maduro, accessed through Palantir. Anthropic's restrictions on military use of its model prompted a senior defence official to suggest re-evaluating the partnership. The emerging question is whether a frontier AI company can maintain ethical red lines while serving as a defence contractor, or whether those roles are incompatible.

Why it matters: Frontier AI companies are being forced to choose: accept the full scope of military and intelligence use, or risk losing access to the most consequential contracts in the sector.

Looking Ahead

Key developments to watch in the coming weeks: the full public release of DeepSeek V4 and industry benchmarking of its efficiency claims; the outcome of TSMC tariff carve-out negotiations and any extension of the H200 framework to Blackwell; the India AI Impact Summit's follow-up action plans and whether they translate into binding governance frameworks; and Germany's formal approach to the GCAP programme.

Tech Cold War Weekly is published every Friday. Subscribe to receive it directly in your inbox.

Sources
Al Jazeera, "India AI Summit: World leaders gather in New Delhi," February 2026 (aljazeera.com)
CNBC, "OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic's Dario Amodei have awkward moment at India AI summit," February 2026 (cnbc.com)
India AI Impact Summit Official Website, February 2026 (indiaaisummit.ai)
Republic World, "PM Modi, President Macron To Launch India-France Year of Innovation 2026," February 2026 (republicworld.com)
DeepSeek, "Engram: A Conditional Memory Architecture," January 2026 (arxiv.org)
DeepSeek, "Manifold-Constrained Hyper-Connections," January 2026 (arxiv.org)
Financial Times, "Washington plans tariff exemptions for tech groups on TSMC chips," February 2026 (ft.com)
U.S. Department of State, "2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial," February 2026 (state.gov)
Bloomberg, "US develops critical minerals price floor system," February 2026 (bloomberg.com)
Council on Foreign Relations, "Leapfrogging China's Critical Minerals Dominance," February 2026 (cfr.org)
The White House, "Project Vault — Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve," February 2026 (whitehouse.gov)
DefenseNews, "FCAS programme collapse: Germany eyes GCAP," February 2026 (defensenews.com)
Reuters, "Belgium says SCAF fighter jet programme is dead," February 2026 (reuters.com)
U.S. Space Force, USSF-87 Mission Update, February 2026
Arianespace, "Ariane 64 maiden flight successful," February 2026 (arianespace.com)
Axios, "Pentagon used Anthropic's Claude AI in Venezuela operation," February 2026 (axios.com)
Reuters, "TSMC January revenue up 37%," February 2026 (reuters.com)